Good,Bad and Ugly

The forecasts for the year 2009 given by three prominent economists of the country can be categorized as :

1.Good - Arvind Virmani, chief economic advisor of the government;
2.Bad- Raghuram Rajan, economic advisor to the prime minister;
3.Ugly- Rajiv Kumar, head of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER).

According to Mr. Viramani the forecast is a strong 8.5% growth in the fiscal year 2009-10, this is based on the analysis done by him which says that Indian with a strong saving of 36% will allow it to substantially ward off the crisis. Normally the growth rate would be a quarter of the saving so it should be 9% theoretically but because of the global influences it is expected to be around 8% which is a very good number at the present situation we are in.He also says that as india is not a export oriented country the deficit will be less as we import many raw materials to produce the products to be exported so the exports and imports both will decline at same level.

According to Mr. Raghuram Rajan, the GDP growth for the year 2009-10 will be about 5-7%, this is a huge range and the probability of this coming true is also high. The higher level will be attained if the global economic situation improves and the lower range is when the situation worsens further. This is bad but not ugly.

According to Mr.Rajiv Kumar, the results of the ICRIER model that he developed which has given accurate predictions of the 2007 GDP growth of 9% and the first model to indicate the slow down has predicted a staggeringly low GDP growth of just 3.9 % for the fiscal year 2009-10. Ugly right. This models takes into account 10 leading indicators including GDP growth in the US and Europe, factoring in the global slowdown.

If a probabilty has to given to the above predictions :

1. good - 10%
2. bad - 60%
2. ugly - 30%

This a biased prediction as would want the economy to be good or bad not ugly at any circumstances.

Where is the tiger?

India is losing the war on " Tiger protection", according to the latest data using advanced technology and calculations tiger population in India is only 1411. According to minister of state for environment and forest the status of population of tigers is very poor. Going at the present trend tigers will be extent in another 10-15 years from India. What a shame if we cannot protect the national animal.

People say tiger is the real king of the forest but has the king lost the charm? No, its the humans greed every where thats taking the toll on the environment and the economy.



Even after PM taking drastic initiatives the population of tigers is reducing at an alarming rate, get ready to see the tiger in the zoo in future thats where all the animals will be in the future.

Economic recovery patterns

The present economic crisis has left the best of the economists searching for the bottom.

How will the bottom be?

The recovery is expected to be in any of the three ways:

1. U-recovery
2. V-recovery
3. L-recovery

U-recovery: The most probably the recovery from the present crisis would be a u one. There is a 60% chance of the recovery being this type and the bottom is expected to last for at least an year so the stability can be expected to come only in the year 2010.

V-recovery: This is the next probable recovery type. In this there would a drastic recovery happening once it touches the bottom. The probability of this type of recovery is only 30%, though it is the most desired. This type of recovery means that in mid 2009 we can see our economies back to normalcy.

L-recovery: This is the most hated type of recovery with the bottom lasting for a long time may be even a decade and then a recovery. The probability is only 10% Thank GOD.

What ever be the type of recovery the economy will bounce back. "What goes down has to come up"

Fed rate to be Zero

US fed is thinking of reducing the fed rate to zero tomorrow. With the present fed rate at 1.o% a 50bps reduction would mean that the rate would as low as .50% the least since july 1954.

This with some unconventional means to pump much needed liquidity into the market is expected by the fed.

But the question remains will this change the tide? will zero interest rate of the fed funds bring America and rest of the world out of the recession? According to me the recession is more than the liquidity crisis.

The Madoff scam, the bailout rejection to the auto majors will bring the impact of the rate cut down.

The investor confidence is critically low, the recovery looks to be way far for now.

Hope is what remains, hope for the best crossing our fingers.

Nokia suspense mobile...

Nokia the worlds largest mobile phone maker will be unveiling its new phone at the Nokia World media and industry conference in Barcelona.

Nokia is using suspense as a tool to create the buzz around the product. The virus has started to spread with many people searching the net for the new phone, but their are no photographs or any other product specific news on the net. All they could find is the timer on the nokia website.

Nokia is using suspense to its advantage.

The product that was launched is the " true iphone killer " Nokia N-97.

The device combines a large 3.5in touch-screen, similar to that found on the Apple iPhone, with a slide-out Qwerty keyboard reminiscent of the Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 and the T-Mobile G1.

it has a five-megapixel camera, and a huge 48GB of memory, capable of storing thousands more songs than the Apple iPhone and many other leading devices.

"From the desktop to the laptop and now to your pocket, the Nokia N97 is the most powerful, multi-sensory mobile computer in existence," said Jonas Geust, a vice president at Nokia.

Nokia has put high-speed web access at the heart of its new device, along with one-button, 'always-on' access to social-networking sites such as Facebook. The phone also uses its built-in GPS technology to provide location-specific information. Nokia, which calls the service 'social location', said that it will enable N97 users to update their social-networking profiles with precise details about their location and find nearby friends.

The Nokia N97 is expected to go on sale in the first half of 2009, and will cost around £470 and is expected by the mid of 2009 in India.

Global GDP growh to be less than 1%

Scary thought to be in a period where in the global GDP grows at less than 1% this was told in the UN " world economic situation and prospects 2009" . With major economies that contribute to the consumption in recession. US, Japan and Europe contribute to about 70% of the world consumption with these economies in recession the impact will be global.

Nomura saying that the Indian GDP estimate for this year is only 6.7% saying that their will be a sharp decline in the growth rate in Q4 and expects the growth rate to be mere 5 % in the next year.

Scary thought if this forecast turns true then 15% of the Indian workforce will be unemployed and the salaries will fall by 60%.

The tips that will help one to land in a new job during the recession are : Six tips to help you land a new job.

Still the outlook for India is good from many organizations so their is some thing to smile. God is with us as he sent a smiley tonight for all of us. :-)

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
COUNTRY DATA

Country	Item	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
India	Annual growth rate of real GDP, (%)	4.5	4.5	7.3	7.1	11.5	7.3	9.1	7.6	7.2
India	Annual CPI inflation rate, (%)	3.7	4.4	3.8	4	4.3	5.8	6.4	6.2	5.7