Monday, December 15, 2008

Economic recovery patterns

The present economic crisis has left the best of the economists searching for the bottom.

How will the bottom be?

The recovery is expected to be in any of the three ways:

  1. U-recovery
  2. V-recovery
  3. L-recovery

U-recovery: The most probably the recovery from the present crisis would be a u one. There is a 60% chance of the recovery being this type and the bottom is expected to last for at least an year so the stability can be expected to come only in the year 2010.

V-recovery: This is the next probable recovery type. In this there would a drastic recovery happening once it touches the bottom. The probability of this type of recovery is only 30%, though it is the most desired. This type of recovery means that in mid 2009 we can see our economies back to normalcy.

L-recovery: This is the most hated type of recovery with the bottom lasting for a long time may be even a decade and then a recovery. The probability is only 10% Thank GOD.

What ever be the type of recovery the economy will bounce back. "What goes down has to come up"

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